Weak US jobs data shifts rate bets, bitcoin back above $86,000

Bitcoin opened Monday, October 5 at $86,513, up 2.1% from Sunday, and ether opened at $2,726, up 1.5%. The trigger was weak US jobs data: the economy added 29,000 jobs in September against forecasts of 90,000.

CME FedWatch now shows an 80.6% chance the Fed holds rates at its next meeting, a week after a hike was favored at 70.9%. The 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007 in late September, pressuring crypto.

Bitcoin pays no yield, so higher rates make bonds more attractive and drain risk appetite. With crypto now held through funds and ETFs, it reacts more to macro data.

Bitcoin is about 29% below its all-time high of $126,198 set on October 6, 2025, and ether about 39% below its $4,953 peak from August 2025. Bitcoin is up about 8% on the month. The $387.5 million Bitget hack in late September also weighed on confidence.

This week's US inflation data will test the new rate outlook, and the rollout of Fed stablecoin rules under the GENIUS Act remains in focus.

US nonfarm payrolls are among the most watched data in global markets because the Fed targets both price stability and maximum employment. A reading of 29,000 against 90,000 expected is a miss large enough to reprice markets within days.

For Turkish investors crypto returns depend on both bitcoin's dollar price and the dollar/lira rate. With the lira flat at 49.15 on October 5, the dollar gain passed through almost fully; when the lira weakens fast, bitcoin can rise in lira even as it falls in dollars.

If you accept crypto, convert to stable value quickly given weekly swings of 5-10%. In Turkey, paying with crypto assets is banned and crypto providers need a Capital Markets Board license. This is not investment advice.