US inflation rises to 3.7%, bitcoin slips to $82,000
US consumer inflation beat forecasts at 3.7% in September. Odds of another Fed hike in October rose, bitcoin fell 1.5% to around $82,000 and Treasury yields climbed.
What happened
US consumer prices rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% year on year, up from 3.4% in August and above the 3.6% forecast. The data, released on 14 October, strengthened expectations that the Fed will keep raising rates after its September hike.
The numbers
Gasoline jumped 9.1% in one month. Core inflation of 2.6% also beat forecasts. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75-4.00% on 16 September. Odds of another hike on 27-28 October rose from about 22% to between 33% and 49%, depending on the source. The 2-year yield rose about 10 basis points to roughly 4.9% and the 10-year reached about 5.3%. Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $82,142.
Background
Core inflation excludes volatile food and energy. CME FedWatch derives hike probabilities from futures prices, so figures change by the hour.
Why it matters
Higher yields make non-yielding assets such as bitcoin less attractive. The same pressure hit AI stocks, which lost over $1 trillion that week. A stronger dollar also weighs on emerging market currencies, including the Turkish lira.
The Turkish angle
The US data hit Turkey the same day. A stronger dollar pressured emerging market currencies and selling deepened on Borsa Istanbul. Ahead of the central bank's 22 October decision, markets are debating how fast local rate cuts can continue while global rates rise, since a narrower rate gap can make lira assets less attractive to foreign investors. Turkey also ranks among the world's leading countries in crypto use per person, so every sharp bitcoin move directly affects a large group of savers.
Energy is the driver
Most of the jump came from energy prices tied to the Middle East war. Energy feeds into transport and production costs with a lag, so economists expect the pressure to show up in core prices over the coming months.
What comes next
The Fed announces its decision on 28 October. If oil prices stay high, inflation is unlikely to fall below 3.5% soon.
What it means for your business
List your dollar-priced costs, convert crypto receipts promptly while volatility is high, and compare loan terms now if you need financing, since local credit may tighten too.