BIST 100 slips after a sharp rally, ahead of the rate decision

The BIST 100 rose 3.22% on Tuesday 20 October to close at 11,797.70, one of its strongest gains in weeks after the selloff that followed the MSCI decision. On Wednesday 21 October it opened 0.55% lower at 11,733.26, finished the morning down 0.81% at 11,702.62, and the decline widened to around 1% in the afternoon.

The morning range was 11,677.62 to 11,780.89. Only 9 of the 100 stocks rose and 90 fell. Industrials lost about 2.05%, financials 1.47% and services 1.21%, while the technology index gained about 1.80%. ASELSAN, Tüpraş, Akbank, Astor and THY saw the highest turnover.

The dollar traded near 49.60 lira and the euro near 55.70. Spot gold fell for a fourth session to about $4,118-4,120 an ounce, with gram gold at 6,560-6,570 lira. Brent futures rose 1.8% to about $110.8. The compound yield on the March 2028 benchmark bond was 39.06%.

Markets await the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee decision on Thursday 22 October. Expectations compiled last week pointed to a limited cut, but oil above $110 complicates the inflation outlook. Global markets were mixed amid uncertainty over AI investment and geopolitical risk.

Technology's rise against a broad decline shows investors treating defence and software names as relative havens before the decision. The profit-taking after Tuesday's rally suggests fragility since the MSCI decision persists.

The index topped 14,400 in September. After MSCI froze some Turkey index changes on 15 October it fell below 12,000, ending the 12-16 October week down 4.44% at 11,721.72, and slid further on Monday 19 October to around 11,430. The 3.22% gain on 20 October recovered a good part of that loss, but the broad selling on 21 October suggests the rebound is not yet secure.

• Wait for the 22 October decision and statement before binding financing steps.
• Recalculate energy costs; oil above $110 feeds into logistics within weeks.
• Stagger foreign-currency purchases.